Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Kevin Kasaei's avatar

Two things worth pulling out of this.

The disclosure asymmetry is the first. TPDS gets no standalone AUM or performance line in the H1 deck, yet management named TPDS II on the call as one of the two closes explaining the net-new-money deceleration. A strategy material enough to move the group's headline fundraising number, and not material enough for a segment line, can only be sized by triangulating from a Q and A answer. That would not pass as disclosure for a listed equity anywhere else.

The second is what the discount is measured against. In credit secondaries the mark is the product. An LP-led purchase prices off the manager's own NAV, which is a model output rather than a trade. A GP-led continuation in direct lending compounds it, because the same manager values the loan, sells the loan, and keeps managing the loan afterwards. Buyout GP-leds at least have a comparable-company anchor. Direct lending has a valuation policy. With troubled loans at the largest private debt investors back at 2017 levels, the discount being underwritten is a discount to a number no transaction has tested.

The disclosure I would want on any credit CV is the entry price set against the selling fund's most recent reported fair value for the same loans, with the payment history of those loans alongside. Where the three disagree, the disagreement is the return.

No posts

Ready for more?